and quietly ensured that uncertainty never disappeared.… The restaurant had no name in English—only four brushed characters fading above the doorway, lacquer cracked by humidity and time. It sat beyond the last MTR stop tourists bothered to remember, where the neon thinned and logistics warehouses pressed against the hills. They met there once a month. Always the same table. Always the same order: steamed garoupa, claypot rice, chrysanthemum tea. Predictability was the point. By April 2026, the world had become obsessed with a narrow strip of water thousands of kilometers away—the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers idled. Insurance premiums spiked into absurdity. Satellite congestion maps showed something unnatural: absence. Nearly 25–30% of global seaborne oil and 20% of LNG had once flowed through that chokepoint. Now traffic had collapsed—at one point, almost entirely. Markets didn’t just react. They fractured. ⸻ “You’re ...