It always chose money to break first.… The conference room on the thirty-second floor of the Houston office was colder than necessary, as if the air-conditioning itself had been instructed to think pessimistically. On the glass wall, a digital map of the Persian Gulf glowed in red and amber. The Strait of Hormuz—normally a thin, forgettable line on world maps—had become the most expensive piece of water on Earth. David Mercer, senior strategy director at the crude trading firm Vanguard Atlantic Energy, looked at the five reports spread across the table. Five think tanks. Same question. Can global crude imports continue if Hormuz is functionally unusable? No tankers. No safe passage. No assumptions of rapid de-escalation. Instead: pipelines, emergency rail, temporary inland logistics, even air freight if necessary. Four reports had reached nearly identical conclusions. Impossible. One report had not. David tapp...