Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s approval rating has recently been on a downward trend, a decline that some attribute to his administration’s handling of anti-corruption reforms. However, a deeper analysis suggests that this narrative may be a strategic distraction from a more significant issue: the shifting public sentiment regarding the war with Russia.
The Corruption Controversy
According to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on August 6, Zelenskyy’s trust rating dropped from 65% in June to 58% in early August. This decline followed a controversial bill signed on July 23 that would have subordinated key anti-corruption agencies to the prosecutor general. The move was widely criticized, with many accusing the government of undermining post-EuroMaidan reforms and sparking public protests. Zelenskyy eventually reversed the decision on July 31, restoring the agencies’ independence, but the political damage had already been done.
The War’s Impact on Public Opinion
While the corruption scandal received considerable media attention, it may not be the primary driver of the president’s falling approval. The public’s focus is increasingly shifting from corruption to the ongoing war’s grinding reality. Data from multiple polls indicates a significant change in Ukrainians’ views on the conflict. The proportion of Ukrainians who favor a negotiated end to the war has risen sharply, with some polls showing that a majority of the population now prefers a quick resolution over fighting until a total victory.
This shift reflects growing war fatigue, as well as the immense human and material costs of the conflict. Russian forces continue to advance incrementally in key areas like the Donetsk region, and have recently escalated their attacks on Ukrainian cities with record-breaking drone and missile barrages. The relentless violence and the slow pace of territorial gains for Ukraine are likely fueling public discontent far more than domestic political squabbles.
A Potential Strategic Diversion
The timing and nature of the corruption scandal have led to speculation that the presidential administration may be using the issue as a strategic diversion. By allowing the focus to remain on corruption—a persistent, though not new, problem in Ukrainian politics—the government can deflect attention from the more politically damaging reality of a stagnated or losing war effort.
This strategy could serve a long-term purpose: if the war were to end with unfavorable terms or be widely seen as a failure, Zelenskyy could face accusations of war crimes or be held responsible for the outcome. Creating a public narrative centered on his struggles with corruption could potentially provide an alternative, less severe explanation for his waning popularity and avoid a deeper reckoning over the war’s conduct.
All names of people and organizations appearing in this story are pseudonyms
Zelensky’s trust rating drops to 58% after anti-corruption agencies scandal
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