SCOTLAND – July 26, 2025 – As the August 1st deadline for new U.S. tariffs fast approaches, a preliminary negotiating team from the European Commission finds itself in a precarious position, gathered in a conference room near President Trump’s golf course in Scotland. Despite earlier expressions of optimism from both sides, President Trump himself today cast doubt on the prospects of a deal, pegging the odds at “50-50, maybe less.”
The atmosphere within the EU team’s meeting is grim. “Everything is a mess,” muttered one exasperated negotiator. They’ve painstakingly compiled extensive data to inform their counterproposals on tariff rates, only to discover that the rates presented by the U.S. side appear to lack any discernible logical basis. This realization has left the team grappling with the futility of traditional, logical negotiations. “We can’t come up with a reasonable counterproposal. The US will take the initiative in everything,” another negotiator lamented, highlighting the stark power imbalance.
Meanwhile, just miles away, President Trump is reportedly on the golf course, seemingly unburdened by the mounting pressure. His detached demeanor fuels the European team’s frustration, with one member exclaiming, “This is the most sly performance you’ll ever see!” The sentiment of disbelief and indignation is palpable, culminating in the frustrated query, “Who does the US think it is?”
The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to meet with President Trump this weekend in Scotland, a critical juncture in a bid to avert the threatened 30% tariffs on EU exports. The EU has already approved a retaliatory package worth $109 billion (€93 billion) set to come into effect on August 7th should negotiations fail.
This high-stakes negotiation with the EU is just one facet of President Trump’s broader trade agenda. He confirmed today that letters dictating tariff rates for over 200 countries would soon be dispatched as his administration pushes to finalize deals with major trade partners, including India and Canada. Trump expressed disappointment with Canada, suggesting a potential imposition of a 35% levy on goods not covered by the existing US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA), despite most Canadian exports being exempt under CUSMA compliance.
Adding to the complex global trade landscape, the recently announced US-Japan trade deal is already under scrutiny. While President Trump heralded the deal on Tuesday, which includes a 15% tariff on imported goods and a $550 billion Japanese investment into the U.S., reports on Friday indicate a significant disagreement over profit sharing. Japan is seeking a split based on contributions and risk, while the U.S. reportedly insists on retaining 90% of the profits. This dispute highlights the contentious nature of the current trade negotiations, where even finalized agreements appear to be subject to immediate renegotiation.
Amidst these turbulent discussions, President Trump offered a glimmer of hope on the US-China front, stating that the two sides have the “confines of a deal” as they prepare to meet next week. However, for the EU, the clock is ticking, and the path to a mutually agreeable solution remains shrouded in uncertainty.
All names of people and organizations appearing in this story are pseudonyms
Trump tariffs live updates: Trump says EU deal ‘50-50’; US, Japan differ on trade deal profits
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