The cold was not yet a weapon, but the chill on the autumn air was a promise. In Ukraine, the promise was of a harsh, but manageable, season—a challenge they had faced before. But for Russia, located hundreds of kilometers further north, the promise was a threat. With average winter temperatures that could plunge far lower than Kyiv’s, a fuel shortage wasn’t just an inconvenience; it was a matter of life and death.
This was the strategic calculus behind the methodical campaign of drone strikes that had been underway since August. While Russia had hoped for energy price spikes to fund its war, it was instead facing a perfect storm of a global oil oversupply and a relentless, targeted campaign against its refining capacity. Ukrainian forces had struck 16 of Russia’s 38 refineries, according to the Financial Times, effectively dismantling more than 1 million barrels per day of processing capacity.
The effects were beginning to cascade. As Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects explained, the disruption was not instant but spread over time, a ripple effect that was now reaching everyday Russians. Diesel exports had fallen to their lowest monthly totals since 2020, while gasoline shortages, once isolated, were now a widespread problem.
The crisis hit unevenly, sowing the seeds of social tension. Private fuel stations, which made up 40% of Russia’s retail network, were struggling the most. Unable to secure supply or afford high borrowing costs, many were forced to close. Meanwhile, state-owned facilities, with better access to reserves, continued to operate, a stark visual of the disparity that was becoming a daily reality for ordinary citizens. As the days grew shorter and the air grew colder, the lack of fuel for cars and heating systems was no longer a logistical problem for the Kremlin to solve; it was a visceral one for the Russian people to endure.
The campaign, once a series of tactical strikes, had become a brilliant strategic move. By turning Russia’s climate into a liability, Ukraine had transformed military action into a form of slow-moving economic pressure with a devastating human cost, all while winter, Russia’s own historical ally, prepared to turn on its people.
From battlefield to oilfields: Ukraine’s drones squeeze Russia’s war economy
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